I mentioned that champion horses can overcome huge weights and still win. By the same token, there are many horses that could have a substantial weight advantage in a race and still fail to perform. By and large though, we will be dealing with the horses that fall somewhere in between the two extremes, and it is here that the best opportunities exist for the intelligent race handicapper.

When making your assessments you will often find yourself in the middle of a distance range. It may then be necessary for you to make a judgement as to which scale to apply. For example, many races at Canterbury are run over the odd distances of 1250, 1280 and 1290 metres. I think for the 1250 I would use the 1200 metre scale and for the others I would go to the 1300 metre scale. It is really just a matter of common sense. As long as the scale is applied equally to all runners it should even out.

I referred to Rem Plante’s book Australian Horse Racing and Punters Guide in the introduction. In his book Rem Plante supplied an ADE-NOMOGRAPH which when used correctly, gave you an adjustment for the acceleration or deceleration effect of more or less weight. In other words, a weight increase would slow the horse down by the weight factor and a deceleration factor as well. To this day Plante and Associates still use a factor in the ratings they supply to the industry. Today, for whatever reason, the factor is not as great as it was.

Looking at the following situation can sum up my own feelings on these factors. Two horses that I once managed in a syndicate were Lord Chris and Royal Liege and later on I will tell you the story about these two holes in my pocket, but in the meantime let’s use them as our example.

Lord Chris wins a race with 54kg and now has 55.5kg to carry over a similar distance. Let’s say a 1300m sprint. Certainly Lord Chris will now be at a disadvantage of a half-length compared to other horses he raced against last time but how will he be affected otherwise?

With the extra weight Lord Chris will probably still get out of the barrier OK and he will run along OK. His rider will find that whereas, in his last start he was able to stride along clear of the field without any effort, he will now have to ride the horse along to maintain his position. The end result may well be the same but it might be different if the weight rise was substantial or if the distance to be covered was a lot further.

If Royal Liege was the horse and he failed last start and was now to carry 1.5kg less over the same distance he may now be able to accelerate faster when he makes his run in the home straight. So he would gain an advantage of more than the ½ a length we expect. It is doubtful that such a small change in weight will make that much difference as the way the horse is ridden can negate any advantage/disadvantage gained. In a longer race, for example, the rider may "nurse" a horse along before asking for an effort. In general we sometimes give a rider less credit than he deserves, for a good rider can often negate the effect of weight and barrier draws as well as be the cause of a horse losing if riding poorly.

I will discuss riders more fully later on. At the time you will be doing your assessments it is likely that riding engagements are not yet finalised. You should concentrate your energy on comparing weights and margins. One factor you do need to consider immediately is the actual weight you should use from last start. Consider the case of Lord Chris. Last start he won with 54kg. Mow did he have an apprentice rider? If he did, what was the allowance? To tell the truth, I don’t really bother with that, for except in extreme cases (when the apprentice has just ridden thirty winners and now has no claim) the weight allowance will be exactly the same at this next start. If the horse now has a senior rider, there will still be no difference for the weight increase will be negated by the fact that a more experienced rider is in control.

The margins listed in your form guide will vary from a short head or a head, a neck, a half-length, ¾ of a length and a length. Except in the case of a short head or a head margin I treat all margins in terms of the nearest ½ length. In fact, I always do this deliberately to give a bonus to the winning horse. After all, the winner is generally the one that has tried the hardest on the day and that is the performance we should take most note of.

In general we will find that a weight increase has the most effect on our assessments when our selection is not only rising in weight, but also racing over more distance. The horse may well be disadvantaged both ways. Firstly, he has to carry more weight. Secondly he has to over a longer distance which may be beyond him unless he has done so before. When the opposite occurs, we may well find a horse springing a reversal of form.

I could give you numerous examples of races where the winner was determined purely and simply on weight factors. More often than not though, a process involving many different factors found the winner. Before we can move onto those though it is essential you fully understand how to use the weight scale I have given you. Let’s use Lord Chris again, only this time he runs second to Royal Liege over the 1600 metre distance.

Here is the result (let’s not worry about the other horses in the race)

1^st Royal Liege 54kg. 2^nd Lord Chris 55.5kg (2^nd by ½ length)

This time the race is 1400m and the barriers are the same.

Royal Liege 55.5kg Lord Chris 54kg.

Royal Liege is ½ a length worse off. Lord Chris is ½ a length better off. If the race was run the same way Lord Chris would win by ½ a length. Now what if the race was over 1600m again.

Because at this distance 1kg = ½ a length Royal Liege is now ¾ of a length worse off and Lord Chris ¾ of a length better off. Lord Chris should now win by a length. Obviously Lord Chris is a better bet over the 1600m distance.

Give a thought now to the incorrect 1.5kg = 1 length theory. In both cases these handicappers would have Lord Chris winning by 1.5 lengths, now that’s quite a difference.

You will see in a later chapter the simple method I use to price our selections. Just to give you an idea, and assuming that there were other horses in the race the price assessments for the 1400m race would have been….

Lord Chris 2/1

Royal Liege 9/4

In other words, the race would be an even contest with the possibility of some minor incident during the race such as a check, allowing the worse weighted horse to win.

Over 1600m my prices would be…

Lord Chris 15/8

Royal Liege 5/2

Now this is entirely different scenario isn’t it?
 

Finally, in both cases where the incorrect 1/5kg = 1 length theory is used the price would be…

Lord Chris 7/4

Royal Liege 3/1

In the longer race we could almost get away with it but in the shorter race we would be courting disaster. Believe me, the weight scale I have given you ahs led me to many winners and saved me lost of losers. It is simple to learn and operate and will save you money in the long run. Make sure you are comfortable with it before you move on.

To be a successful punter you not only have to be a good handicapper, but you must also be able to find factors within a race that other handicappers have left out. By using the sliding scale of weights you are already way out in front of the majority of punters. Just by reading this book you have proved that you are prepared to look at new ideas. The punter who stays still will be trapped by his own insufficiencies. Each week when I attend the races I see the same punters making the same mistakes over and over again and I will often speak up to find that they know what they’re doing wrong but just can’t help themselves. Help yourself. Accept new ideas and new possibilities.