I’ve covered all the factors that I believe are necessary for you to successfully assess the Form of horses and their suitability for their current race.  I’ve covered all the forms of betting that are currently available to most Australians and my opinions of them.  The way you choose to bet is now up to you.  Ultimately you must take the responsibility upon yourself.  It is after all, your money.  If it assists you, I now offer my own personal strategy.. The Ultimate Strategy.

I have researched the Classes of races that produce the best results.  The distances that produce the best results.  The price brackets that produce the best results.  The style of betting that produces the best results.

When I peruse the Form every Friday I assess the Form in all races.  The reason I do this is that a standout horse, a real live nothing is likely to beat it, standout horse, will win any race it is in regardless of Class or Distance.  It is only when I have done my assessments that I start to make decisions about which races I will and won’t bet on.

You, on the other hand, would be wise to stick to those Classes and distances I have shown you earlier on are the most profitable until you are proficient enough to do the Form quickly and accurately at the same time.

A race in which I identify a number of chances I will simply mark “Too wide” to indicate to myself that it is not likely that there will be any value.

A race in which there are several chances but there is the likelihood of some scratchings I will mark “Redo after scratchings”, particularly if a horse I like is at long odds in the Pre Post market.

I now do a printout of the assessments in all races in which I have a Top Rated selection at 4/1 or less.  I list all the horses rated within 5 lengths of the Top Rated horse.  This gives me a good guide after scratchings as I can mentally reassess the odds to see whether the Top Rated horse is likely to come into the “Hit Zone”.

After scratchings I peruse the final selections to assess the merit or otherwise of any unexpected riding changes.  I can then get my final list of “Action” horses ready for the afternoon’s betting.

I list all horses Top Rated at 2/1 or better plus any other chances in the race in Race Time Order.  I am now organised and ready.  I mark each horse that will be a bet with a tick or a X.  Every horse that is Top Rated at 9/10 is automatically a bet regardless of Class or Distance.

I now look through my book for horses rated at 2/1 or less in all Brisbane races, all Welter races and all Melbourne Handicap races plus any races for 3yo at 1800 metres or more.  This completes my list of bets.

On a separate page I lest every Top Rated horse at 2/1 or better.  I Standout each selection from the next six horses in the Prepost market (7 if the field is more than 10).  I then check to make sure that none of my Top Chances (other than the Top Rated horse) have been left out.  I will add these in.  These Trifectas are then placed.

The advantage of placing your trifectas early is that you will be able to concentrate on your action without worrying about getting your other bets on.  You also avoid the possibility of missing out should the TAB or course Tote breakdown, which seems to only happen when you need to get a good bet on.

The last thing that remains is to decide just how much money to place on each bet.  At present I am Betting To Chances so I bet 33 units on a 2/1 chance and so on.  I am currently thinking about switching to Level Profit betting again but this will be subject to my decision as to whether I can psychologically cope with win only betting.  The reason for this is that an Each Way bet seems to be better suited to BTC betting as the bet size can increase dramatically with Level Profit betting each way.  To take out 100 units profit on a 6/4 chance requires an Each Way bet of 55 (i.e. 110 units total) whereas a 6/4 rated chance needs only a bet of 20 units each way (40) total.  The respective amounts for a straight out bet are 67 and 40 so you can see the difference.

Once at the track (I rarely bet at the TAB these days except Trifectas and the occasional Superfecta) I watch the betting moves for all the relevant races.

I place my bet the first time my selection firms I have found this to be the correct strategy.  Horses that firm in the market usually continue to firm.  If the horse stays the same or eases then I end up with a better price.  I never bet with the Tote unless the odds of the horse are higher and the horse stays firm or eases.  If the Bookmakers market firms then the TAB odds will also firm as listeners at home are informed of the market move and follow it blindly.  If the horse stays firm or eases the price at the TAB is likely to remain above the bookmakers market.  I’ll bet you right now that you have felt that helpless feeling as your good TAB overlay vanishes minute by minute and you are sweating for the race to start before your good value bet is totally ruined by all those last minute bettors.

Okay, I am looking at a horse and it is 6/4.  If it firms and I then back it I will bet for the win only.  If it stays the same or eases by bet will be placed each way.  A horse firming from 6/4 has a very high win percentage and I go with the flow.  At 6/4 or longer the bet will not be a total disaster if it loses and there will still be a good gain if the horse wins.  I suppose I am fairly normal if I say that a day in which I back no winners is a psychological downer.  I know that on paper I will actually win more money by betting win only but you have to be ready to suffer runs of outs.  A persistent run of outs tends to dull your judgment and ruin your ability to back any horse about which you have doubts.

You start to look for sure things and in the process drop many horses that you would otherwise have selected.  It is these other horses that provide you with the good wins.  You probably use your intuition a little with these.  And this can be a good thing.

I do back all the horses I rate 9/10 chances straight out.  The high strike rate justifies this approach.  The profit on turnover is at least 8% higher also.  I am able to rationalise such an approach as I know from past history that the possibility of a long run of out is negligible.  It does not matter what the price of my Top Rated 9/10 chance is.  Just to give you an idea, I rated Gold Blade at 9/10 to win a 1200 metre Welter.

The price of my selection did not stop if from winning.  The return of over 1100 units was very satisfying.  The each way return was 665 units, a big difference.

So what am I left with.  My approach is based on having on hand at any time a Bank sufficiently large to handle the inevitable losing run.  If I am seeking to take out 100 units in each race I need a Bank of 2000 units or twenty times the target.  In all my years of betting I have never ever approached the end of my Bank, although you can get below 50% in a rough patch.

I back my Top Rated chances at 9/10 straight out regardless of the odds available.

I back all my Top Rated chances in selected class races up to rated odds of 2/1 on an each way basis unless the odds available are less than 6/4.  I back these few horses straight out.  I never accept odds of less than 4/5.  I will, however, accept odds that are less than my rated odds in the price bracket below 2/1.

I standout my Top Rated selections (rated 2/1 or less) in all races regardless of class or distance in trifectas.

My last, but very important, point.  Whenever I have a big win above my current Back level I spend my profits! This is a very satisfying thing to do.  It relieves the stress that inevitably builds up in the constant grind of analysing Form.  It relieves that feeling of “Is it really worth it?” and encourages you to go on.  The people around you will get a lift from it as well and you will have a very real sense of achievement knowing that you actually did it.  You are not lucky, you are skilled and persistent and now, rewarded.

I am forced to admit, that during the course of each racing day, I am likely to gamble.  I am prepared at times to take a chance if the opportunity for a big win presents itself. It might be that the odds available for a place on a selection are irresistible.  Or it could be that one or two bookmakers are offering well above the market odds, wither accidentally or intentionally and I can’t resist the bait.  Sometimes the gamble pays off, sometimes it doesn’t but providing my Bank is protected (I would never make one of these plays in a losing period) I don’t mind having a go.

I have provided you with the tools that I have used over the years and they have worked well for me.  It is now over to you to use them as you see fit.  As a basic step I suggest that you think positively always and look forward to the challenge.  It therefore remains only for me now to wish you good fortune and good luck.

Garry Robinson

7/4/92