Just as there are time variants between different tracks, there are time variants between different distances. All of the various time variants or factors are listed overleaf with the time variants for different courses on P51. But for now let’s examine the reasons for them.
A horse racing over 1000 metres is not going to have time to do anything else but race flatout. There is no time to settle down and just one mistake, one check, a slow start, or any of the hundreds of other minor incidents that occur in racing will be sufficient to ruin the chances of any runner. On the other hand, a freegoer will not have to worry too much about being run down and many horses whose ability is limited will be able to win many races at this distance. I recommend that you should almost never take any notice of 1000 metre races a s a guide to the winning chances of any horse unless it has shown the ability to maintain those times over at least 1100 metres or longer. Except for some 2yo races I do not rate 1000 or 1100 metre races.
The reasons are simple. A strong 1200 metre horse may find the distances too short whilst some weaker animals may just last the shorter distance, thus robbing the better horse of victory. Always when handicapping it is best to handicap horses over their best performance at a similar distance. The time factors relating to 1000, 1100 and 1200 metres are small. Time factors alone are not the best determining factors in the 1000 and 1100 metre races.
1000 – 1100 metres the factor is 6.1 seconds.
1100 – 1200 metres the factor is 6.2 seconds.
The hardest factor to work out when you do your assessments is the correct assessment of the middle distances. I am referring to distances such as 1250 metres, 1280, 1290, 1350, 1450 and so on. The best way to handle these assessments is to relate then to the nearest time factor. so for under 1300 metres you use the 1200 – 1300 metre factor and so on. The time factors I use are listed here.
1200 – 1300 metres 6.2 seconds
1300 – 1400 metres 6.4 seconds
1200 – 1400 metres 12.6 seconds
1200 – 1350 metres 8.5 seconds
1350 – 1400 metres 4.1 seconds
1400 – 1500 metres 7.0 seconds
1500 – 1600 metres 6.2 seconds
1400 – 1600 metres 13.2 seconds
above 1600 metres use 13.5 seconds = 200 metres
Clearly there appear to be some anomalies here. If we use the 1200 – 1400 metre factor and apply it to the 1350 metre distance we get .75 * 12.6 = 9.45 seconds. The factor was worked out at Doomben where there are many races run at this unusual distance. In practice the 1350 metre races are run at a particularly fast pace. Once the same horses get to Eagle Farm they seem to race at the normal pace for a 1400 metre race although many horses who win at the 1350 at Doomben cannot run out the 1400 at Eagle Farm. Strangely enough the same sort of factor does not seem to apply at Cheltenham in Adelaide where races are run over 1350 and 1450 metres. I note that 1350 metre races are occasionally run now at Rosehill which was reconstructed during 1991. I will be taking note of the performances.
The other major anomaly occurs in races over 1500 metres. These races seem to be run as 1600 metre races and hence the relatively slow pace. There is only a minor variation between 1500 metre and 1600 metre races. At Canterbury in Sydney they run races over 1550 metres. These races are also run at the pace of 1600 metre races and I suggest that the factor you should use here is 3.2 seconds and 10 seconds which is little different to the listed factor for 1400 – 1600 metres. You will pick up a lot of winners that are overlooked by other handicappers by using the odd factors that apply to certain courses and distances. Let’s look at a few examples of the time factors in use.
Lord Chris runes 1.23 over 1400 metres. He now has to race over 1500 metres.
Royal Liege runs 1.16.9 over 1300 metres. He also runs now over 1500 metres.
Lord Chris : 1.23 + 7.0 = 1 minute 30 seconds
Royal Liege : 1.16.9 + 6.4 = 1.23.3 + 7.0 = 1.30.3
All else being equal Lord Chris should win by 1.5 lengths.
Lord Chris wins at 1500 metres running 1.30
Royal Liege wins a 1600 metre race in 1.35.9
Lord Chris : 1.30 + 6.2 = 1.36.2
Royal Liege : 1.35.9 = 1.35.9
Royal Liege should win. Assuming he does, how fast will be run 2000 metres?
1.35.9 + 13.5 = 1.49.4 for 1800 + 13.5 = 2.2.9 for 2000.
Now here’s an example of how you can beat the average time handicapper by using the odd distance factors.
Let’s assume Lord Chris wins a 1500 metre event in 1.29. If today’s race is over 1400 metres most time handicappers will assume a time difference of 6 to 6.5 seconds, depending on their allowance for the distance. The end time will then be..
1.29 – say 6.5 = 1.22.5
The factors I have given you will say..
1.29 – 7 = 1.22 a difference of .5 or around 3 lengths. The other time handicappers will be wrong and you will be right. Obviously you will be on a different horse altogether. The same logic will apply at Doomben when comparing horses to race at 1350 metres. or switching to 1400 or 1600 or perhaps even 1200 metres.
I hope that you are getting the ides. The illustrations have been deliberately kept simple. We will be bringing it all together later and then it can get a little more complex. No doubt, for some of you lucky readers this is kindergarten stuff, however, as there are new people starting all the time I have to take every reader into account. I do assume that you know the basics, however. Things like the different Classes of races. The various type of bet we can place etc. The difference between a filly and a colt. The name of the person sitting in the saddle, and the difference between a jockey and a trainer and so on. If you aren’t familiar with racing terms then we do have a problem don’t we?
Let’s look at another factor now. The pace factor.