The first step in our approach is to get together a program to eliminate the losing chances in the field.  Most of you will be looking at the form on a Friday and should have some idea at the stage of the likely track conditions.  Eliminate immediately any race meeting where the prevailing weather conditions are likely to produce a slow or heavy track.  Even if the weather improves you will bot get fair racing conditions.  Concentrate your energy on those meetings where you are ensured of getting a good racing surface.

The race card listed here is a 2yo handicap on February 1st 1992.  Apart from the first starters, only one horse Le Masque, has had two or more runs from a spell.  We will need to look at his form to ensure it is up to Metropolitan standard but he is the only horse to be considered as a winning chance.  We will also look at the revealed form of Winning Combo, County Again and Agenda so we can make a ball park assessment of the field strength.

You can see from the above form that Le Masque has won his first up run quite easily.  His second run from a spell he only ran third as an odds on favourite.  We can excuse this run.  Today he will be much fitter than any other horse in the race and more experienced as well.  I priced Le Masque 6/4.  He won easily at 2/1 and established a new class record 1.04.06 for the 1100 metre journey.  If only all races were as predictable as this one?

It is an interesting point.  The dogs were barking for the unraced Commissar who started a 4/6 favourite.  Although some horses win at their first start it is unusual for them to beat in form, fit horses.  You will note from Le Masque’s form too, that he was a 4/9 favourite when beaten second up.  Backers of either horse, under the circumstances, could have had no concept of value.

The above card is for Flemington Race 1 on February 1st 1992.  All except Lady Honora and Ripper Zipper are experienced horses.  Let’s eliminate these and I will now proceed to explain the further eliminations.

Campbell Fever Her only run was 36 days ago.  Unfit
Forget Playing  Her only run was 36 days ago.  Unfit
Stage Show  Her last run was in November.
Miss Comet  Second run from a spell.
Inala Princess  Weak country form.

Now let’s look at the remaining Horses (fillies in this case).

Riva Diva has won her only two starts easily.  Start 1 is at this course.  Her time of 59.6 needs to be adjusted to today's distance.  The time factor is 3.1.59.6 + 6.1 = 1.5.7.  The weight rise from 55kgs to 56kgs is ¼ length.  The time adjustment is therefore only .05 of a second.

Her next start is the vital one.  At Sandown with 56.5 kgs she won in 1.11.6 over 1200 metres.  Deduct 6.2 (the time factor) and we get 1.5.4 Barriers don’t count here but the Sandown time variant comes into play.  Deduct one second we get 1.4.4  Our remaining chances will now be assessed against this rated time.

You will note that I have adjusted the race times to an estimated time for today’s distance.  Every factor, weight, barriers and time will be assembled into one single time rating just as in weight ratings all factors are converted comparing just one thing.  The ability of the contenders to run today’s race in the fastest time.  Now let’s compare the other starters in today’s race.

Rumesa is fit but her time of 1.12.1 last start is far too slow.
Lady Lois, the remaining contender, ran second to Riva Diva on January 7th but obviously Riva Diva has improved beyond comparison.  Rive Diva is the only possibility.  At 7/4 Riva Diva easily beat Campbell’s Fever (evens favourite) in 1.3.9

So, the first two examples we have looked at showed us that in each case we were able to select a standout selection.  The form in each race was limited, and there were only a couple of chances at most of an upset being  caused.  You will also have noted that you shouldn’t be put off by price.  Riva Diva opened favourite in her race but eased as the big money came for Campbell’s Fever.  The money placed on the other runner in no way affected Riva Diva’s chances of winning.  In cases like this you just inwardly smile as your potential rewards grow bigger as the minutes tick by.

In the nest example The Collingwood Football Club Centenary Handicap we will be looking at a huge field of experienced horses.  Fortunately the best of the revealed form all took place in the last two starts of most runners.  The form published here is courtesy of the Weekend Australian.  One part of the form it lacks (but I will supply as needs be) is the barrier positions from recent starts.

It is important to note that at this distance at Flemington the barrier positions are all equal.  There will be no adjustments for barrier positions except where a contender had a poor barrier draw at their last start.  We will adjust then down to zero.  Nickel Road, In The System, Touch of Brilliance and Helix Gold are scratched.  I have already eliminated the following horses as being unfit or out of form or simply too slow.

Stoney Rises, Port Phillip, Home Show, Anything’s Possible, Wobber and Highfield Queen.

Let’s first look at the top weight Salesti.  Last start the false rail at Caulfield was out 6 metres.  The actual distance run therefore was 1995 metres.  The first thing to do is adjust the race time for the actual distance raced.  At 2000 metres each 200 metres is timed at 13.5 seconds so.

5/200 X 13.5 = .33 of a second.  The new time is 2.01 (forget the 3/100ths of a second)

Salesti goes up 4kgs.  At this distance 1.5kgs = .2 secs.  so 4/1.5 = 2.67 X .2 = .53 seconds.  The new time is 2.01.6  Let’s look at Salesti’s previous Flemington run when he broke the 1800 metre record.  (don’t get too carried away as few races are run at this distance here).

Note that Kara Koram was beaten ½ length not ½ a hd which is shown in the form guide.  This sometimes happens and is the reason why you should keep a copy of the race results handy.  A quick check revealed the error.  It even happens sometimes with computer based form guides so it is wise to keep alert.  So far we have Salesti on top with 2.01.6 and now three horses all with a fastest time of 2.02.1.  Not easy this one!

You can see how the horses fall into a natural order.  Just Count Vari to go then we will rank them up.  You will note that I have taken a number of calculations to the nearest 1/10th of a second.  You can go to the extra decimal place if you wish but it will not often matter.

O.K. We have to hope that Turnout and Pelagic can run the 2000 metres but all other chances can handle it.  The way these two race they look O.K. too.  Let’s see ehat we’ve got.

You will note that I have allotted Salesti 10 points as the Top Rated horse.  Each other horse has been allotted 10 points less the 1/10ths. of a second that they rate below Salesti.  This is so we can allot each horse their percentage chance of winning the race.  Now all we have to do is divide the rating by the total rating points and we have our price so Salesti is
10/32 = 31% or a true 9/4 chance.  Turnout is,
5/32 = 16% oir a true 11/2 chance and so on.

I’ll discuss price in more depth later on but for now I need to discuss jockeys with you.  I’ve revealed the raw figures but what about that very important part… the rider.

To be honest with you I don’t really pay too much attention to the rider.  You see I look at it this way.  If the horse is rated and how has the same horse/rider combination there is no need to change.  If jockey J. Smith rode the horse last time and L. Dittman is the rider today then I will sit up and take notice.  99% of the time the correct horse/rider combination is going around and to illustrate the point let’s look at the current race.

As you can see from the above there was little change in the standard of rider for each horse.  Depending on how Arnold or Keating were riding you might see a slight difference there, but by and large there is hardly a struck match between them.  So now for the result…

Pelagic 5/2, Salesti 11/, Jewel Of Egypt 10/1, Turnout 7/1, Stirring 13/2, Kara Koram 9/1.

I have to be honest and say that I didn’t bet on this race.  I rated it for my Winform customers and several of them successfully coupled up the chances and snared the trifecta which paid $478.50 in NSW.  It was not too hard to do.  Stand out the top 5, the same 5 for second and all but Salesti for third.  Total cost $100.  One could argue that Salesti’s rated best time of 2.1.6 was a bit too much on top for the others but in the end the extra weight, plus the improvement in Pelagic told the difference.  The race was won in 2.02.3 which is close enough to our estimated times.  Only Patriotic Star (obviously a Sandown only horse) and Count Vari could be classed as failures.  It’s a pity they weren’t running a Superfecta as we would have snared it I reckon.  It is not that often that you will get so many of your rated horses into the right positions.

We’ll discuss staking and strategies a little later but let’s tidy up some of the form analysis.  I mentioned ho9w I take each factor to the nearest 1/10th of a second.  I sometimes don’t worry too much about the odd ½ kg.  And while I think of it, I rarely take into account apprentice’s allowances.  let’s face it, except for a small number of them they need the allowance to offset their inexperience.

A friend of mine takes every factor to the nearest 1/100th of a second.  In the finish his ratings rarely vary from mine, although there has been the odd occasion he has got me.  You would need to have every factor adjusted to the nearest, and all the wrong way, to be even ½ a length out.  When you think about it, that theoretical margin is but that.  Theoretical.  When we come to pricing all our chances we will be looking for horses that have a margin in their favour of much more than a length.  It’s ironic in a way that the example I just gave you was a 2000 metre event.  Most time rating experts rate horses over 1200 – 1600 metres only.  It is amazing that many middle distance horses can actually sprint faster than many short course winners.

I have used the Winform method to rate horses over all distances, even the Melbourne Cup, and in that prestigious race I have failed to win only a handful of times in all my punting life.  In Racing Pays I used the example of Black Knight and Chagemar who quinellad the Cup in 1984.  Since then Kensei was another good result for me as he leapt through on the fence to beat that latest winner Empire Rose.  You can safely use the methods in this book on virtually any racecourse anywhere in the world.

A Malaysian reader often writes to tell me of his success at the races in Malaysia and Singapore using these methods.  He insists that much of the racing there is not fair dinkum and sends me lists of jockeys who have been suspended for not trying to prove it.  In spite of this he is backing many winners and some at pricers of 100’s to 1 because the punters over there seem to have no concept of form.  They just like to bet.  His only worry is that many meetings are unbettable because of the wet weather.  Our main worries are not so much whether the method works but being consistent enough in it’s use.