We looked at pricing our selections briefly in our Putting It All Together chapter earlier. On the previous page I discussed the allowances you must give for the remainder of the field once you have rated what you consider to be the real winning chances. It is now time to delve into pricing in detail and how you can use pricing to make money from your punting.
Yes. It’s surprising just how many punters don’t even consider making money from their hobby. They seem to be happy to play with their bank roll until it’s gone. If they go home with any money in their pocket at all they seem to be happy. Well I for one am not! I don’t go overboard in my grief but it takes a real effort to maintain my disposition when you’ve just had a dozen or se bets and failed to land even a single winner. It doesn’t happen often but it does happen, even to the best of us.
Let’s start simply and look at races in which there is only one chance. Firstly let’s see what happens when there’s a small field and we allow 5 ratings points for the remainder (the minimum I ever allow). The formula look like this.
A horse 10
The rest 5
Total Points 15
A horse is a 10/15 = 67% or odds of ½ that’s two to one on.
If the horse is truly a ½ chance then the bookmakers will probably only offer you odds of 2/5 or 1/3.
When a horse is a genuine odds on chance the TAB is likely to pay better odds. The Bookmaker, knowing a horse is a true odds on chance will generally offer only poorer value odds than he normally does simply because he believes he will be laying a winner.
We must do the exact opposite. We must price our selections in such a way that when we achieve our new rated price we are actually getting over the odds.
In Racing Pays I provided a Value Chart but I think it important that you see how to work it out for yourself. We take the original % odds i.e. 67% and multiply by 80%. That’s a simple calculation on your calculator. The answer 53% or odds of 9/10 on. This is the shortest price I ever give out for a rated horse. On rare occasions I will accept odds of 4/5 on a really top chance in a really small field but I am never that happy about accepting odds on. I prefer to stick to horses that are at odds of even money or better. At least then you can reverse any loss by selecting just one winner.
Let’s look at another example.
Horse B 10
The others 10
Total Points 20
B horse is a 10/20 = 50% chance or even money 50% x 80% = 40% and is therefore a 6/4 Value bet.
Let’s now have a look at the last simple example. This is how I priced Ali Boy’s race.
Ali Boy 10
The Others 15
Total Chances 25
Ali Boy is a 10/25 = 40% chance or 6/4
40% x 80% = 32% = 2/1 (near enough)
I rarely back horses that are value rated at greater than 2/1. My experience suggests that when your Top Rated horse is longer than this the real chances drop off dramatically. The event is becoming too open and my experience with other rating services, even the humble Computercard which is supplied free in the Weekend Australian, suggest that 2/1 is the logical cut off point for anybody’s ratings no matter how they are worked out.
There may be a case for backing Top Rated horses at longer rated odds in the known open races such as Doncasters, Melbourne Cups and the like. Even I can’t resist having a flutter in these events. I recall Regal Native’s Epsom handicap win in1988. I rated hip in top at 6/1 and to be honest I was disappointed with the 11/1 I secured. I was looking for another Row Of Waves result. Readers of Racing Pays will remember that I rated him a 3/1 chance equal with Avon Angel.
In that race even the real mugs would have to agree that 100/1 about Row Of Waves was a better value bet than 3/1 about the 3yo filly Avon Angel!
Let’s look at a real race now with a number of chances and speculate about what is revealed.
ELECTRONIC SALES AND SERVICES WELTER 1500M
1/2/92
SNOWPLOUGH 10
CHROME BLADE 8
SIEGE 5
THE OTHERS 5
TOTAL CHANCES 28
Snowplough is 10/28 = 36% x 80% = 29% = 5/2
Chrome Blade is 8/28 = 28% x 80% = 22% = 7/2
Siege is 5/28 = 18% x 80% = 14% = 6/1
Snowplough was available at 16/1. Chrome Blade was 5/1 and Siege was 9/1. The race was won in the last stride by Instrumental, after being heavily backing from 2/1. It was his first run for 30 days and he only just got home over Chrome Blade by the barest of margins after he had looked to have the race won. All three horses were Value bets for us but today we were out of luck. Both Snowplough and Siege were failures. I guess I had to include this example to point out that we can lose.
Let’s have a look at another sample race, a final one to make sure that you have grasped the principles involved.
Horse A 10
Horse B 10
Horse C 6
Horse D 5
Other Chances 10
Total Chances 41
Horse A is 10/41 = 24% x 80% = 19% = 4/1
Horse B is the same = 4/1
Horse C is 6/41 = 14% x 80% = 12% = 8/1
Horse D is 5/41 = 12% x 80% = 10% = 9/1
A wide open market here but one would have to consider that the chances of Horses A or B winning is 19 + 19 = 38% or 13/8. Now here we have a pretty good chance of winning if we are prepared to back both A and B to win.
In a real even in Brisbane in March 92 I priced Grey Dollar and Louie Louie both at 11/4. The combined chance of either of those horses winning was 9/10.
In other words by backing both those horses to win an equal amount of money it was more likely that we would win rather than lose!
At one stage of betting both horses were available at 4/1. Louie Louie won the race with Grey Dollar being held up for a run in the straight.
It may well be worth considering a bet like this when the odds of both horses are at good enough odds to guarantee a profit at least equal to the combined value price.
Take the case of two horses priced at 7/4 and 5/2. (Your value rated prices). The combined price is again odds on. The minimum price I would accept is one that guarantees me at least double my outlay. Another way of using this bet is to save your stake on the Top Rated horse on the second rated horse. Your decision will need to be based on the actual prices available on the two horses. I would have more than a saver at 10/1.