Whilst I do not intend to write an autobiography, a brief outline of my punting origins may be helpful in providing an understanding of how my rating method (now known as Winform) was devised and developed. As a "bankie" in the early 1960's life was typically boring. The Beatles were yet to be discovered but The Shadows inspired many a budding guitarist, myself included. After some months tuition I could play the odd tune or two but found myself short of cash to keep going. I mentioned this to my tutor who in generous fashion offered to teach me free it I in turn would help him with his Saturday morning beginners class.
On Saturday mornings I learnt more than just music as my tutor was a regular punter at the then fledgling TAB. I also learnt that one of my duties was the placing of the gentleman's bets at the nearby TAB agency. "Have a bet yourself while you're there." He would say. "Not with my budget." I would say to myself, but I did learn the basics of reading a form guide.
This went on routinely for a number of weeks until one day Jim handed me a ten bob note with the words "You've earned more than just your tuition lately, here's the cash, now go and have a bet.' I wasn't entirely stupid so I had one place bet of two shillings and sixpence on a Newcastle horse entered in Sydney and pocketed the rest. Needless to say the Newcastle nag ran third and paid three pounds five shillings for the place. I was hooked! And I still can't remember the name of the thing.
It didn’t take me long to deduce that my tutor and now mate, was a typical mug punter who followed all sorts of ridiculous notions related to jockeys etc. He had no idea of Class or distance or any of those myriad factors that played a part in the art of regular winner selection. He even believed the stories they printed in the newspaper! Fair enough he had fun but I felt that there had to be a more scientific way of picking winners than following your favourite jockey.
I can still see the flyspecked cover of my first fair dinkum punting book. I forget what it was called but it had something to do with winning at the TAB. Obviously, such a thing was considered unlikely even then, considering the amount of time my little book must have waited on the shelves for me to come along and buy it. The first system seemed perfectly logical to me. Simply put, you added up the tipster’s poll points for the first most favoured horse of the day in Sydney and Melbourne and backed it for the place. All you needed was at least 27 points our of a possible 30 and your fortune was well on it’s way to being made. It took me the best part of thirty weeks to figure out that this was not going to earn me any great fortune, especially with the TAB paying money back on most dividends.
My next step was to buy something like 5 years back issues of a magazine called Turf Monthly and I read and reread some of the great old system geniuses like Malvolio and The Cabramatta Cougar. In the process I learned of the deeds of many of Australia’s greatest thoroughbreds but I didn’t learn much about the actual selection and handicapping horses.
Not to be discouraged I purchased three years back issues of The Australian newspaper and tried my own research.
Logic suggested that the reason most Tipster Poll based systems didn’t work was that everybody and their brother would jump on the Poll Favourite, much as they do today. I reasoned that the second Poll Favourite would not win as many races but it would surely pay much better and I was right. In those days the TAB closed off betting half an hour before each race and there was no sophisticated way of transferring the funds to on the course pool so that the back room boys could make quick work of it and pinch the overs.
I probably surprised myself when I discovered that by simply backing these Second Poll Favourites for either the win or place I could make a small level stakes profit. Of course in those days the take out percentage was less than it is today and the politicians had not yet discovered that they could fleece the unsuspecting punter by rounding down the dividends as they do today. In fact it was only when the government upped the takeout to today’s levels that virtually all place betting became unprofitable. The sad fact is that now, as then, the powers that be did not realise they were killing the golden goose, for who in their right mind bets for a place these days?
A chance Christmas gift gave me my first insight into genuine handicapping, as we know the term today. It was Rem Plante’s Australian Horse Racing and Punters Guide and it was my mother in law who gave it to me (now that takes the cake!)
In spite of the source of the gift I realised that I finally had found something that I could really sink my teeth into. For the most part Rem Plante’s book exposed me to sound and logical thinking on the subject of Race Handicapping. Yet there were still some parts that worried me.
One section of the book I couldn’t come to terms with were the relative weight scales. To expand on this a bit. I couldn’t quite see that it made a lot of difference when a horse raced in a different class of race. It seemed to me that if the horse performed OK in his last race then the fact he was now in a slightly different class (in those days the Graduation Stakes was quite common and were for a mix of different classes of horses) didn’t matter all that much.
It had always seemed to me that each race should be won by the fastest horse after weights and the various other form factors were taken into account. I also disagreed with Rem Plante’s weight adjustments, which paid no attention at all to the changed distances that are commonly encountered from on run to the next. It seemed strange to me that Rem Plante’s work on the famous ADE-NOMOGRAPH could be so highly regarded yet other more obvious weight factors ignored. I suppose it would be fair to say that reading and digesting Rem Plante’s book spurred me on to the basis of my Winform Rating method.
In the beginning I did everything scientifically. I used exact times and distances down to several decimal places. I compared the performances of the most consistent animals in training at different tracks.
I compared their performances at different distances to establish the correct Time Factors that affected those different courses and distances.
Gradually I built up a library of all the Factors necessary for my work and started on of the first Rating Services I Australia. The Master Selection Service was born. I supplied selections for the Daily Double races in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and in the first few weeks scored with successful doubles up to $99.
I then learned some very important lessons about punters. The first lesson was to get your money in first. Many of those first clients failed to pay even after they had been give every profitable selections. When asked, "Did you get last week’s Brisbane double. It paid $99" the response I would get would be "I don’t bet in Brisbane" or "I didn’t like your selection". After just three months the service folded.
By this time I had developed a very successful handicapping technique. I had backed winners up to 250 to 1 although I rarely invested more than twenty dollars per selection. My idea of a standout was simply that when my Top Rated horse was Rated a full length clear of the field and was consistent and had good last start form and had raced within 21 days it was a good thing. I still had not thought of the idea of allocating each horse a price. In fact, my idea of value was getting a longshot up.
In 1975 I started my first retail business. Trapped by the reams of paper work that was involved I lost my zest for the difficult tas of handicapping racehorses and temporarily faded into obscurity only to emerge at Melbourne Cup time for a brief period.
It wasn’t until 1984, long after Don Scott started the Value Revolution that I returned to the fray.
It was at this time I refined my techniques and ideas and for the first time priced my selections. The idea of backing only overlays proved to be a winner especially since my selections were based on Time Ratings whilst most punters and now Bookmakers were obsessed with Weight Ratings. My selections were often at substantial odds and the quinellas I was able to snare were the icing on the cake.
The time seemed ripe to get involved in the Rating business again and in 1986 I started Punters Information Services to provide my Winform Ratings to the public. Following enthusiastic reviews of my operations by Punters Choice the service grew rapidly and continues to this day. An invitation to write for Australia’s leading Racing Magazine "Turf Monthly" followed.
In 1988 the first Australian publication of my Time Rating method was released. Racing Pays was an instant success. Since then there has been a dramatic change on Australia’s racecourses with Bookmaker’s markets reflecting the changing style of the punter. With the advent of Sky Channel and improved technology at the TAB’s around Australia there has been a dramatic falling off of racecourse attendances. Not only that, but the style of punter attending the course is better educated and more professional in his approach, due mainly to the proliferation of Ratings services and quality punting publications.
Today the punter who wishes to maximise the return on his hard earned dollars must change his approach.
Today I have changed my strategies. It is only special circumstances that I am prepared to back all the overlays in a race. The accent now must be on greater accuracy and hence stronger, more consistent strike rates. After 8 years of selecting I have identified the strengths and the weaknesses. As you read through Racing Pays 2 you will learn how to maximise your efforts by sticking to the most profitable races.