In spite of the necessity of being race fit, there are some horses, few in number, who consistently race well first up. The class sprinter Joanne is one of these. At the time of writing this class mare has won at her first up run from a spell some seven times. It is true that her consistent form has often scared most of the opposition away but the record that she has would command the utmost respect from any handicapper. Another well known galloper, although not in Joanne’s class, is the welter performer Hit The Jackpot. Hit The Jackpot can usually be relied upon to race consistently first up, although not necessarily winning, and striking peak form within two or three starts.
There are, in fact, a number of gallopers that can and do win first up. It is possible to gain a list of horses that race well first up through computerised form guides, in particular the large number of on line services provide this type of information if it is not obvious in your normal form guide. I myself will never back any horse first up but that is not to say that I don’t respect the ability of any horse to win first up. Mostly I will allow a factor within my handicapping technique to cover for the possibility of a first up win occurring. If there are a large number of acceptors who appear to lack fitness in a race I am more likely to leave the race alone rather than risk nominating which one will be forward enough in condition to win. It is a well known axiom of racing that an inferior horse that is race fit will usually beat a better horse that is not.
The Hobartville Stakes of 1992 is a good example of an inferior horse (although whether she remains one is yet to be decided) with fitness on her side defeating the up till then best 3YO sprinters in Australia.
Tierce, Big Dreams, Kinjite have all proven themselves in previous preparations but on the 7th of March 1992 each of these gallopers had had only one run back from a spell. Heroicity, the West Australian galloper was having only his first run for over two months. The David Balfour trained Take The Road had had three runs this time in, including a third in State record time at Morphettville on February the 8th. Her first run in Sydney on the 22nd was her first time racing clockwise and although ony fifth could not be considered a failure. In the Hobartville, Take The Road raced truly, and took advantage of a narrow split to defeat Big Dreams and at the huge odds of 60/1 (TAB). A few smart punters backed her on course at odds of 66/1 and shortened her price to 30’s.
Don’t expect to see your selection win at these sorts of odds too often. In the Class races a lot of gallopers will carry the day on heart alone. What you have to do when handicapping a race is to eliminate risk taking. Sometimes the risk pays off. Sometimes it doesn’t. You don’t have to back many winners at 60/1 though to make the risk and effort worthwhile. For the record my market on the race would have been:-
Take The Road 9/2
Sedgwyn 6/1
Baanya Boy 10/1
As you can see, the combined percentage of those three fit horses is just 41%. I have allowed for the strong possibility that the heart of one of the quality horses would be enough to see one of them winning in spite of their lack of fitness. You can see though, the point.
Most of the time you will be looking at and handicapping what I would consider normal races. The point will be far more obvious then. On the same day that Take The Road was humbling Big Dreams I was more intent on a restricted race at Doomben in Brisbane. Romany Roi, a promising 4YO, was having his first start since a spell and was favoured to win. Fit and in Form I have no doubt that Romany Roi could have competed the task. At the first start of his previous preparation the 4YO raced on the pace and finished second just under a neck. Impressed though I was, second is not first. United Prince was having the 11th start of his preparation and had raced consistently with only a 5 week let up at one stage to stop him getting giddy from going around. I can tell you that at the 14/1 that I obtained, United Prince was a great bet for here we had an average fit horse racing an average unfit horse.