Here’s a list, without comment, of the main reasons for eliminating horses from contention in any race.  It is only after the horse without a winning chance are eliminated that we can concentrate our energies on the best winning chances.

Horses resuming after a spell (over 60 days) or let up (over 21 days)

Horses racing second up from a spell.

Horses coming back in distance (more than 200 metres)

Horses rising sharply in distance (more than 400 metres)

Horses whose best times are slower than average for the distance.

Horses who are obviously unsuited to the distance of today’s race.

Horses who are obviously unsuited to the track conditions of today’s race.

Horses with consistently poor form.

All horses in races less than 1200 metres (except 2yo up to March)

I have shown you in a previous chapter sufficient examples of how to arrive at a final estimated time rating for each horse.  We have eliminated all the horses that we feel have no winning chance.  Once we have made our list of rated horses that we have assured ourselves are fit and ready for today’s race we must glance back at the horses we have eliminated, for although they may have little chance of winning it is more than probable that some of them may reduce our winning chances for any number of reasons.

A fit horse will almost always beat an unfit horse even when the unfit horse is a clearly superior animal.  There are times though, when the superior horse defies fitness and substitutes heart. We must allow for that possibility in our assessments.  If we fail to do so we will end up putting too much faith in our assessment and be betting more money than we should.

In general I won’t price an unfit horse but I will allow some points in my market for others.  In a small field when my top rated horses are clearly superior to the unfit horse or horses (even if they were fit) I allow a total score of 5.  If a clearly superior horse is in the field (but not yet fit) I will increase this allowance to 10.  If there is more than one superior horse I may go to 15 or eliminate the race itself from contention.

In a larger field (over 12) I may allow a basic 10 for the other chances even if there is clearly just one standout Top Rated horse unless the field is particularly weak.  In March 1992 I found that Ali Boy whose last start was in the Australian Cup was a standout selection in a 2000 metre Welter event at Rosehill.  In a field of 16 tried horses I allowed 15 for the other chances even though Ali Boy was rated at least 6 lengths better than the next horse.  After that though there were at least 8 or 9 horses who could win the race if anything went wrong with Ali Boy.  As it turned out G. Cooksley always felt he had the leaders covered and had no concerns as he romped home to win in style.  Incidentally the second horse Golden Step, although rated 6 lengths behind ali Boy was a good 3 lengths better at the weights than the next few horses.  In this instance I was able to secure a well paid trifecta of over $1100.