For some unknown reason the odds you can get about horses in different types (classes) of races are different. For example, in Welter races you can just about guarantee that you will get a better price about you selection than if it were in a fillies and mares race. And speaking of fillies and mares races, you would not be surprised to learn that you will frequently get a poorer price about your selection in these races when you manage to select a winner. Perhaps there is something about their physical cycle. I don’t know. What I do know is that when you’ve selected it, and the money’s on you have a bloody good chance of winning.
In 2yo and 3yo races you will have a high to very high strike rate but in general your prices will be lower than average. In 3you races over more than 1600 metres I have found that you can get better odds and I can’t honestly say why.
Melbourne Handicap races are good opportunities to get a reasonable price about your selection. You will get 7 or 8 to 1, no trouble about most of your selections. Perhaps it is the evenness of the fields, whatever, the fact remains that I seem to get better prices in Melbourne than I do in Sydney (except Welter handicaps).
In Brisbane you can get good priced winners in their Restricted Class handicaps, particularly on the TAB’s. An 8/1 winner can pay anything up to 16/1 at your state TAB and you will score one of these quite frequently.
Adelaide is a remarkable place. Most events are over odd distances but your selections, when you make them, will be consistent but at poor prices. Bookmaker holdings at Adelaide meetings can be poor to very poor. This means that only small amounts of money can reduce the price of your fancy dramatically. On top of this, you are betting at what could be almost the Hayes personal Racetrack Conglomerate, so dominant are the Hayes trained horses.
Rather than rattle on and provide you with reams of figures accumulated over years of selecting and betting in these cities, I thought it might be better to list the types of races run in each city and a general comment on how you can expect your selections to perform. You can then use this as a guide to which types of races you wish to concentrate on. It is always going to be better to attach with a method’s strengths rather than it’s weaknesses. In all cases the data is assessed on Top Rated selections rated 2/1 or less.
Brisbane
| Class | S/R | P/R |
| 2yo | average | average |
| 3yo | average | average |
| Handicap | average | average |
| Welter | average | average |
| Restricted | average | above average* |
| F & Mares | average | below average |
As the majority of races conducted at the Eagle Farm and Doomben tracks are Restricted Class events I would have to say that Brisbane as a whole produces an above average betting result. Restricted Class events further than 1700 metres can be a trap. I leave these out
Sydney
| Class | S/R | P/R |
| 2yo | average | average |
| 3yo | average | average |
| Handicap | below average | loss |
| Welter | above average* | above average* |
| Restricted | below average | loss |
| F & Mares | below average | loss |
You can see here the results for yourself. I wish I could explain why it is so but I can’t. The Welter’s are not so hard as Sydney is the Welter capital of Australia with this type of race, sometimes two, on every program. The fields are consistently good. Inconsistent racing surfaces over the 88 – 90 seasons could explain some of the poor form experienced.
Melbourne
| Class | S/R | P/R |
| 2yo | above average* | above average* |
| 3yo | average | above average* |
| Handicap | average | above average* |
| Welter | average | above average* |
| Mares | below average | average |
Note here that Restricted events are virtually non-existent on Saturday programs in Melbourne. The above average prices available ensure that if you can maintain your strike rate you will do very well in Melbourne, although because of the wet winters your action will be restricted to the summer months.
Adelaide
| Class | S/R | P/R |
| 2yo | average | average |
| 3yo | above average | average |
| Handicap | above average | below average |
| Welter | above average | average |
| F & Mares | average | below average |
| Restricted | below average | below average |
The action to take at Adelaide is anything but obvious. Similar to Melbourne you will do very little betting here in winter. It is not unusual to run up strings of winners in Adelaide once you get going there but the prices achieved will be low.
You will have to decide your own personal plan of action depending on you own choices. Will you look at classes where the Strike Rate (S/R/) is above average? If so you would want to check that the Profit Rate (P/R) is at least average if you are Betting To Prices. If Level Profit is your go then you will not need to be concerned with a lower than average profit rate if the strike rate is O.K.
My own personal betting strategy will be revealed soon enough, but that strategy is designed to suit my own personal psych. It also suits my Bank and my desire for plenty of action to fill my day. Your own strategy will be built around your own personal choices as to which city you wish to bet in, whether you are betting on-course or TAB and of course the size of your budget.
The information given above is based on the assessed ratings served up to my customers in the last 6 years. Your own personal ratings could differ for a number of reasons.
Form Guide To Odds
My long experience over the years along with a substantial data base
has provided valuable information that assists both me and my clients in
formulating the best betting plans. All the information given now
is based on horses that are Top Rated only. The performance is listed
in two columns. The first column is for all horses Rated up to the
mark and the second column is for those odds only.
| ODDS | S/R P/R | S/R P/R |
| Above 4/1 | loss loss | loss loss |
| 4/1 | 23% +5% | loss loss |
| 3/1 | 25% +8% | 22% +3% |
| 2/1 | 27% +24% | 23% +24% |
| 6/4 | 32% +24% | 35% +24% |
| 9/10 | 40% +24% |
The strike rate falls off (as you would expect) as the rated price increases. The surprise is tat the profit rate only starts to slide once our rating gets above 2/1. This may well be because of the larger number of horses that will be under our assessed odds as the rating gets out. The profit rate falls dramatically too as many of the winners we record will also be poor value with a higher proportion of under value horses winning.
From 2/1 to 9/10 there is an increase in strike rate but it is not accompanied by fall off in profit levels. Once again this is because the shorter we rate the horse, the less likely that our rated price is going to be undercut by the market prices.
There is a slight anomaly in horses rated at exactly 2/1. You would expect a higher strike rate than what is achieved but there is an explanation for this. You will note that there is no drop in profit and that is important.
In some races I am not sure that the Tip Rated standout horse is fit. Or, I may be unconvinced that the horse’s last start or perhaps the qualifying run is the horse’s true form. At the same time there may be another horse whose form is superior to the remaining chances but not quite up to the Top Rated horse. In these circumstances I will often rate the second horse equal with the first horse so the Rating for both horses will then be
A 10 2/1 (10/25
= 40 x 80% = 32 = 2/1)
B 10 2/1
Others 5
The strike rate is thus 40 odd % of races but only 20% or less in terms of selections. The average selection service will only score wins with 13% of their overlay selections but this is irrelevant as long as the profit rate is maintained. As you can see, our profit rate for horses rated at 2/1 is the same as our profit rate on 9/10 rated chances.
Where you will differ in your assessments will be the interpretation of field strengths. If in a field of 10 horses I rate the selection on 10 and then allow 5 rating points for the balance of the field, you might allow 10 points. Perhaps you have noted that one of the horses has a new trainer who is renowned for first up betting plunges. The odds we arrive at for that selection will be different.
The betting strategy you adopt will take into account many factors. Against the high strike rate of 9/10 rated chances you have to offset the fact that you will only rate 1 or two horses per week at those sort of odds. As the price of your Top Rated selection goes out the number of selections will increase and you will get more action.
The cut off point will be for me, horses rated below 2/1, for you it may be higher or lower. The patient bettor could benefit by waiting for those outstanding Top Rated chances and placing larger bets. The bettor who enjoys placing bets and who wants consistent action will opt for taking as many bets as possible without risking long runs of outs and a severe drop off in profit rate. His bets will be smaller. I repeat myself. It is up to you to decide.