Probably one of the most important factors in any race is the barrier factor. You can control almost every other factor in the race but you have no control over the barrier draw which can be crucial. A good start, no matter what the racing style of the horse, is essential.
There are tow elements of the barrier factor. Firstly there is the mathematical reality that the wider drawn the horse, the further he has to travel. We can easily deal with this factor by allotting a time factor for the estimated cost of a wide draw. The second factor is also a physical one and it relates to the layout of the track. At Canterbury, for example, it can be a disadvantage to draw an inside barrier at certain positions. At Doomben it can be essential.
The best way to deal with barrier factors is to give you the base factors which you could use at courses other than the ones listed. Towards the end of this chapter I will give you barrier factors for the major metropolitan courses which vary from the base factors.
Barrier Factors
0 – 4 = no adjustment
5 – 9 = .10 secs
10 – 14 = .20 secs
15- 18 = .30 secs
91+ = .40 secs
These then are the base factors. Common sense must be applied to those horses drawn just over or just under a bracket. A fractional adjustment could be made.
In Racing Pays I alerted you to the barrier difference factor. In other words I had found another factor that the punting public seems to dismiss in their assessments. Let’s assume that last time out Lord Chris drew barrier 10 and went down to Royal Liege who drew barrier 1 by 1.5 lengths. Suppose that the relative weights of the two horses remain the same for their next encounter except that the barrier draw is reversed.
Most experts would not have even noticed and will have Royal Liege a pronounced favourite. After all barrier 10 is not all that adverse a handicap at most courses. The barrier difference is such that, all other things being equal, Lord Chris would win the race by half a length. In normal circumstances you would expect Royal Liege to have a weight rise after his earlier win so the combined factors of weight and the barrier difference would be sufficient to make Lord Chris a good thing.
One aspect of barrier positions that I cover in my analysis of Winform Ratings is that it appears that a good horse rated to win after all adjustments have been make will still win in spite of drawing poorly. You would think that more winners would come from the nil adjustment barrier positions. Whilst I am always happy when my rated selection is to start from the inside, it does not appear to have given them a greater percentage of winners.
With all the worrying we do about barriers it is obvious from the results that we give a lot less credit to the riders then they deserve. Take the Brisbane hose Louie Louie. Only a moderate galloper, Louie Louie normally races just off the pace and can sometimes sprint home in the straight. After a disappointing last on Feb 29th. 1992 it was clear new tactics were required.
On March 7th Louie Louie drew barrier 1 at the Doomben 1200 and 3kg. Apprentice D. Craven was engaged. This time Louie Louie clearly won the start and was allowed to dictate the pace. It was only in the last strides that he was overtaken by the quality mare River Of Destiny, Brunchtime and Cole Diesel. A repeat performance was scheduled for March 21st, again at Doomben and again from barrier 1. This time Louie Louie defied all attempts to run him down and was successful.
A good jockey can overcome difficulties and still place his mount to advantage. In the 1992 Newmarket at Broadmeadow (Newcastle) Blue Boss was clearly the best horse even though he drew a little wide at 11. In fact few horses overcome a wide gate from this position. Alf Mathews must have been a little upset when Blue Boss reared at the start and came out second last. To top it off he then knucked over, but Mathews then got him quickly into stride and drove him hard to be on the fence in fourth spot after travelling only 200 metres. he retained this position all the way to the 100 metre mark when he squeezed Blue Boss through a gap on the face to win decisively. Imagine how well Blue Boss could have won had he not had such bad luck at the start?
Except in exceptional circumstances a wide draw is always a disadvantage. To say otherwise is to deny the facts. A good jockey can overcome a bad barrier draw, it’s true, but the disadvantages have to be weighed up and allowed for in our assessments. I have been disappointed to find that a horse which would otherwise have a winning rating, has drawn badly. I have been delighted, however, when a selection has drawn well. In the past you could almost say that unless a horse drew an inside barrier at Rosehill then forget their chances.
Fortunately, the inside barrier at the Rosehill 1200 metre start no longer has this extraordinary advantage. In fact, the first few races run from the new chute have been won by horses coming from the middle barriers. The turns are now banked at Rosehill which can negate the effect of racing wide to some extent. Until many many races have been run and won here though, I would urge caution. It would be wise to use our standard barrier factors as the track bias, if any, can and will change with time.
In may analysis of the Winform Top Rated selections over the last 4 years I am able to detail the following interesting facts. The horses drawn in barriers 0 – 4 achieved a high strike rate but it was not the highest strike rate. The average dividend paid was slightly lower than average. If you thing about it a bit you can see why. The horses drawn on the inside generally have an advantage except at some courses. If your horse is a slow beginner, he can be caught behind the faster horses coming across. As for the betting aspect, you can imagine that the inside barrier draw brings the horse a lot of extra attention. I know of some punter who only look at horses drawn in an inside barrier. There are many systems also that have a cut off factor once you get beyond a certain barrier. In otherwords some punters can’t see past the inside.
Horses drawn in barriers 5 – 9 had the highest strike rate of all. Not only did they enjoy a high strike rate, but they were more profitable as well. Horses with a bit of speed are not so disadvantaged by this barrier range as they would easily be able to find a sit a couple of horses off the fence. It could be that horses drawn here are also slightly underbet, purely because of the overbetting that takes place on the horses drawn inside. Understandably, horses drawn in 10 – 14 were much fewer in number than those drawn inside and the sample size is much smaller even though the selecti8ons were made over a period of 4 years. The win strike was less then two thirds of the normal strike rate. In spite of this the prices achieved were sufficient to square the ledger. Clearly, the public tends to stage away from horses with an outside draw. This is where the astute punter can take advantage. If you know the courses and distances where an outside barrier draw is negated by the peculiarities of the particular course and distance you could be securing significant extra value.
Horses that drew wider than 14 were fewer in number again. In fact it is rare for a really widely drawn runner to make it as a top rated selection. One horse I recall that won from an outside barrier draw was the Class mare With Me. In 1991 as a 3yo she was at her peak. From barrier 18 in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate she managed to equal the course record and won by over a length. It was the first time that any horse had won from barrier 18 at Caulfield over 1100 metres. Because of the wide barrier draw With Me was unwanted in the betting and started at 12/1. Only a few weeks later the publication Barriers was on my desk to be reviewed. In it I noted that a statistical study revealed that outside barriers in the chute at Caulfield win more races than the inside barriers. It would have been handy information to have a few short weeks earlier.
In my own study of selections the indications are that horses drawn outside 14 are even more severely disadvantaged than I thought, except of course circumstances like the above.